The Thought Leader's Voice Podcast

Rachael Kinsella: Hello, and welcome to the Thought Leaders Voice. Today we’re discussing the energy evolution: a sustainable energy transition for growth. We’re very pleased to be joined today by global energy expert, Adrian Del Maestro, Director of Research and Head of global thought leadership and energy, at PwC Strategy&, PwC’s strategy consulting business. With his unique experience spanning 3 decades of consultancy, financial and professional services, Adrian has deep insights into the challenges and opportunities facing the energy sector, and to leading thinking in this space. A very warm welcome to you today, Adrian. Thank you so much for joining us at a very busy and pivotal time for the industry.

Adrian Del Maestro: Yes, it’s lovely to be with you. And thank you for the invitation. Yes, I mean, you’re quite right, a pivotal time for the sector, for the energy sector. And I was just musing to myself that, for those of us who are a little bit longer in the tooth, if you cast your minds back about, I don’t know, 10-15 years ago, you would have been lucky to see energy-related news hit the front page, you might have seen it on the back page. And now it’s difficult to not see news on social media, newspaper publications, about energy in so many different guises. I mean, we’ve got right now in Europe clearly, we’ve got the issue of rising commodity prices, particularly in the area of gas, with repercussions that people haven’t really thought through about how these rising commodity prices have knock-on effects to other sectors that are totally in some areas unrelated. Think for example, in the UK, how a shortage of carbon dioxide, I find it somewhat ironic that we have a shortage of carbon dioxide in the UK on the back of rising gas prices with some agricultural fertilizer plants closing, shutting down production, which had a knock-on effect on the food system. And we, therefore, had worries about where the shelves would be filled with food. So, energy permeates our lives. And that’s something more recent, but what what’s been a bigger trend is that push around the urgency of climate change. And that started probably in kind of pre-COVID times in 2019, where there was a very big push on ESG. And if you cast your mind back then it was it was the public awareness of the urgency that came to the fore. So, think of Greta Thunberg and her activities in the UK, activities of extinction, rebellion, that very much came to the fore. And that put a lot of pressure on the energy industry, particularly the oil and gas industry to respond. And subsequently, in 2020, you saw this plethora of net-zero announcements across the energy industry. The UK started that in 2019. And so, you saw these aspirations to decarbonize companies, for corporates, for cities, for countries, and that momentum is just carried on. So, energy is very much at the fore and there is an awareness that, on the one hand, we need to decarbonize very quickly, you will have seen the IPCC report recently, which really kind of accelerated that sense of urgency, though. So, the window of opportunity we have to meet that 1.50 degree is still open, but it’s getting smaller and we need to act and this is going to be the decisive decade, we need to make significant steps forward in decarbonisation using technology, using regulation if we have any hope of meeting that 1.5 degrees scenario.

Rachael Kinsella: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, the scope and the scale of the issue is vast. And as you say, that sense of urgency has really come to the fore, fairly recently. Would you say it’s been accelerated or hindered in any way by the COVID pandemic?

Adrian Del Maestro: Yeah, good point. I mean, I think on balance COVID probably accelerated the energy transition. Because I think what you saw, there are a number of dimensions to this, I think the big point is that you saw, and you see governments now in various regions around the world, looking to build back better. So, looking at implementing packages to stimulate economic growth, with a focus on a green agenda, with a focus on decarbonisation. And that’s very good, to think of Boris Johnson with his 10-point plan for Green Industrial Revolution. Or even with the new administration in the US, there’s a very big focus on decarbonisation there in the agenda. I think the other thing from a more, from a softer, more human perspective, I think people just got in touch with nature a bit more during the COVID lock down. I mean, we live in Wimbledon, which is a fairly rural bit of London, ironically enough, but you kind of heard the birds more and then with those wonderful images of Venice. Without the boats on, you had crystal clear water, the air felt cleaner, you didn’t hear aeroplanes flying over so much. And if you’re a cyclist living in a city, the joys of cycling without any traffic, I think people got a taste of what life might be like if it was a lower carbon world. So, I think that’s something that people will hold on to, but the reality is as well, that you saw a significant drop in carbon emissions during COVID-19. Because effectively, large chunks of industry shut down. But you’re seeing the bounce back in and emissions, you know, and if there were any of us that had a hope that that we would sustain that emission decline as a platform to build on, while those hopes were ephemeral. And that’s typically what happens with the global sector, with global industry, when you have these massive events, like even the global financial crisis, you see a dip in emissions. And then as the economic recovery builds momentum, those emissions bounce back up again. And I think that’s what’s difficult about this transition. And I think the other aspect is, we have an unpalatable addiction to hydrocarbons. And I personally find it very difficult to envisage a scenario in the next 20-30 years where we still do not have some degree of dependency on hydrocarbons. So, I can see the acceleration of renewables playing a much bigger role. I can see some of these other technologies that are going to compliment renewables, for example, hydrogen, if it can deliver on its promise in certain sectors, it can possibly provide a storage option for the intermittency of renewables, I think that’s a positive story. If carbon capture takes off at scale, this is a technology that’s been around a long time, but not at the scale that we need. But if that takes off, that will also help. But I still think for the foreseeable future, hydrocarbons have played such an important and big role in our lives. It’s difficult to see their share disappear over the next 20-30 years, we’re probably still going to have some degree of dependency, certainly on gas. But you will need technologies to mitigate and abate the impact of those hydrocarbons, like carbon capture.

Rachael Kinsella: Right, absolutely. And can you think of some good examples of some of the technologies that are being developed or are in play at the moment that can help mitigate that?

Adrian Del Maestro: Well, this, I think the broad point I’d make first is, there is no silver bullet for the energy transition, there is no one technology that’s going to deliver that solution. It’s going to be a portfolio of technologies. So, wind, solar, etc, that are going to play. Some of the new technologies, I mean the carbon capture technologies, Iceland’s just launched the world’s first major direct air capture facility. It’s very small, there’s a new one being built. I think, in the Permian, that will be about 1 million tonnes, I think it’s a million tonnes a year in terms of capacity. So, these are interesting technologies that will help, but I mean, they’re very new. I mentioned carbon capture. Carbon Capture has been around a long time. One of the Norwegian oil and gas companies pioneered that technology in the 1990s with one of their offshore fields. And I think we’ve got something like 18-19 major carbon capture projects around the world, but those are going to play a potentially a big part. So, if you think for example of industrial clusters, is a good example because they’re hard to abate. They’re difficult to electrify. So, think of cement producers, steel producers, refineries, energy-intensive businesses, difficult to electrify and in the UK, we have five major strategic clusters but to the big ones, Zero Carbon Humber, Net Zero Teesside, they’re looking to use a number of technologies to decarbonize. And one of the interesting ones is using potentially using technology to produce blue hydrogen, so hydrogen that’s using carbon capture technology to eliminate most of the emissions. And then they produce blue hydrogen that then will be pushed around that industrial cluster, to be potentially used as a feedstock for industrial processes, potentially to be used as a feedstock for power generation, they’re looking at producing one of the first 100% hydrogen powered plants, potentially producing hydrogen for heavy transportation as a fuel, and potentially using hydrogen either to be blended into residential heating, or at some point, probably a long way away 100% hydrogen, but you can see these different technologies complementing one another, and having multiple end-user applications. And again, just to reiterate that point, I know there’s in the market now, there’s an enormous amount of attention on hydrogen.

Adrian Del Maestro: Potentially, hydrogen is a wonderful fuel that can solve all our problems. It’s not quite that simple. But I do think there are some end use applications for hydrogen that can potentially take-off such as the ones that I’ve just illustrated in that example. But you need to have all these other technologies working alongside,

Rachael Kinsella: Of course, yeah. So really a combined approach. And as well as developing all these different technologies and embedding them. There’s the regulation to consider. There’re other measures that are in terms of funding, you know, who’s going to be funding all of these projects, various different industry participants that need to come together to make this happen. And can you tell us a little bit more about how different areas of the industry are working together on these new technologies and initiatives, and also where the regulatory factor comes into play, because, obviously, you mentioned that the news, has been all about the energy sector recently, and I’ve seen obviously, there’s new regulatory reporting standards coming out, the constant dialogue around how regulation can play a part. And it’d be interesting to get your perspective, from talking to the companies about how they’re able to make this transition? Where regulation is helping? Where its hindering? And also working with other – either trade bodies, policymakers, other participants – that can help to get these initiatives up and running.

Adrian Del Maestro: So, Rachael, you touch on a lot of key themes there. You’ve alluded to the importance of partnerships and you also alluded to the importance of costs, which I’ll touch on as well. But let’s just start with partnerships first. So, I think if we’re going to be successful to decarbonize at the pace and scale that we need to, you need to have partnerships. And those partnerships take different forms. So, they’re clearly partnerships between governments, government and the private sector. And I think that that’s a really critical pathway. If you look at, for example, let me give you an example of a partnership that worked well, at that level, and then a partnership that will need to work well at that level for another new technology. So, Offshore wind in the UK, is a bit of a success story. Yes, we got to a rep from kind of nothing in the 2000s, early 2000s, we got to about 10 gigawatts capacity. And we have a new aspiration to hit about 40 gigawatts capacity by 2030. And that story, is a story of success in terms of government, setting a very clear ambition roadmap and enabling regulatory regime to attract private sector investments. And then the private sector coming in with all its skills, investment innovation to deliver. So, in the UK, the government set a target that they wanted to grow the offshore wind industry. They set that vision. They set up a regulatory environment using something called contracts for differences which have provided some security for the private sector. And then you had, the likes of offshore wind developers coming in, and investing in the UK. And that sector grew dramatically as I’ve just alluded to, you need those kinds of elements for some of these new technologies. So, coming back to hydrogen again, if hydrogen is going to take off because it’s an expensive technology, because you need to get it scale, because there is uncertainty now. If you want to buy a fleet of hydrogen trucks, as a company doing that, you’re going to be worried about how you’re going to refuel those trucks. Need to make sure you’ve got refuelling infrastructure. And if you’re the person producing hydrogen, you want to make sure that you’ve got an end sector demand. So, I think the governments in the UK and in other regions, they have a really important role in again, setting the ambition, “we’re going to produce X gigawatts of hydrogen”, “we are going to invest a little bit of money to incentivize through pilots and demonstration plants”. “And we’re going to set up a regulatory regime that will encourage investment from the corporate sector.” So, I think that’s a big role for government and the and the importance of government, private sector partnerships. But also, you have these partnerships between companies. And personally, what I find really interesting is the plethora of partnerships, you see, being announced in the energy transition with companies that you wouldn’t have thought were natural partners. So, you’ve got oil and gas companies partnering with offshore wind developers to produce green hydrogen, you’ve got oil and gas companies partnering with automotive manufacturers, because they see the opportunity of the OEMs to produce the hydrogen trucks, and the energy company to produce to make sure there’s the refuelling and infrastructure for hydrogen. And you see all these different partnerships. And the reason why they’re happening is because you need, not all these companies have the capabilities to deliver the solution. So you need the partner to build those capabilities. And also, it’s a great way of syndicating and mitigating that technical risk in the technology as well as the financial risk. So, lots of partnerships between governments and corporates, lots of partnerships between the corporates. And I think just one other element about that is corporate partnerships. It’s interesting to see how, because of the nature of the energy sector, you’re seeing a convergence of multiple sectors. So, the easy example is, think of electric vehicles. Yeah. So, you’re going to have oil and gas companies looking to invest in EV’s and particularly EV charging, because if you’ve got a big retail business that sells gasoline, and diesel, it’s a pretty smart move to also start putting charge points, there’s those the fleet electrifies, your drawing customers to retail outlets. Yeah, only gas companies, utility companies are going into EV charging, because they see another way to generate revenue aside from the sale of electricity. And then you’ve got technology companies coming in, because they provide the platforms that connect the electric vehicles to other electric vehicles to the charge points to the home. So, you’ve got to kind of technology and go, you’re the automotive guys who produce the electric vehicles. So, you see all these different market participants centering around technology, and therefore it’s only natural that they form partnerships, because effectively they’re all operating within the same ecosystem. So, I think there’s a big theme there. And I think the other thing that you talked about, you just alluded to was cost. And again, this is I think, this is one of the unpalatable realities about the energy transition is, it’s going to cost a lot. We did a report last year, looking at the UK at major infrastructure, so power generation, buildings, electric vehicle transport, digital infrastructure and just for the UK over the next 10 years, if we’re going to make that infrastructure Net Zero compliant, is going to cost us something of the order of 400 billion pounds, which is a huge number. And I think what it illustrates is, how much we will have to spend in order to decarbonize and who’s going to pay for this because this inevitably will hit consumers in some shape or form. They need to be aware of that. And that is the cost that we’re going to have to bear. And then how will we fund this, you know which corporates, which lending institutions are going to have the scale or capital to deploy in order to help us decarbonize? So, I think this raises lots of issues.

Rachael Kinsella: Absolutely. And it also brings it nicely on to, what the role of the consumer is in maintaining and developing this sustainable transition? Is that an education thing? I think certainly cost comes up time and again, as you mentioned, in your research, we did some recent research with the financial services sector to look at their sustainability initiatives and cost kept coming up as the highest barrier. And as we’ve seen with consumers, there’s great appetite for green products and services and building a better future, but then cost keeps coming up as an issue.

Adrian Del Maestro: Yeah, yeah. Again, Rachael, spot on. The consumer is all important. I mean, we are we are the consumer. And I think the big difference we’ve seen in the last 10 years is with the support of social media, mobile technology, the consumer can shape policy, the consumer can shape the direction of corporates. And that’s a pretty powerful influencer. And I think, in general, in that context of ESG, I think that’s a force for good. I think that the challenge, one of the challenges you’ve just alluded to is education. So, people just need to understand the implications of all of this. So, there is a cost implication to this, there is an implication about how quickly we can transition from one type of fuel to another type of fuel. And that’s not going to be, you know, that dependency to some extent on hydrocarbons, particularly gas, for the foreseeable future. That is not an easy narrative for governments to tell consumers about because there’s an expectation that you can just move from one fuel technology to the other overnight, which is not the case, because the lights will go out. So, there is it’s a transition, it will take time. So, I think there’s a big theme around educating consumers about how we’re going to do that, what we will need to sacrifice in order to get there, and the costs as well. So, I think that’s a long journey.

Rachael Kinsella: And, indeed, a level of transparency, that perhaps hasn’t been there previously. And highlighting these issues, yes, it’s not going to be a quick fix, it’s not going to be an instant change. But it’s this iterative process, and everyone’s involved, and everyone has a role to play in it. And so that education piece is vital, I think, if we’re going to support the industry to be able to move forward. And I’m thinking back to say 10 years ago, talking about clean technology and renewables, it was quite niche, we were talking about it from a corporate finance perspective. And as investment was going into infrastructure, post-financial crisis, it was the new exciting thing. And I was interested in your point about how it’s become mainstream news. So that in itself, I think is a force for good and shows that there is a level of education happening, there’s that interest and appetite to be able to help effect change. And I think that point you touched on around the power of social media and connection and communication now, to be able to shape policy. I mean, that’s a pretty big thing, isn’t it? I think, even in, in recent years, that wasn’t the case. So being able to do that in a positive way. And to be able to gather support through media, like social media channels or other means. And as you mentioned, we’ve got spokespeople and various collaborations worldwide, that are talking about the issues and keeping it front of mind.

Adrian Del Maestro: Yeah, yeah.

Rachael Kinsella: How does that tally with the regulatory framework, as it stands at the moment and where it will need to evolve? So, you mentioned obviously a success story with government paving the way for wind power, and essentially, it was the gateway by creating the regulation to be able to fund that and to be able to support it and move it forward. You know, the realistic timescales and how do you think that’s going to affect regulatory initiatives going forward?

Adrian Del Maestro: Well, I think the direction of travel for regulation, so the regulatory environment around decarbonisation is only going to get more stringent. I think that’s the direction I travel. I think you have some regions more than others leading the way, so clearly, the EU is a good example, there was the Fit for 55 initiative that’s been announced this year. So, the EU is looking to reduce its emissions by 55% by 2030. And they introduced a number of elements such as the carbon border adjustment tax, for example, for imports of high carbon products. And Europe is very much on the, I always like to describe it as on the pointy end of the regulatory environment. So, this, they’re very much leaving the way now that different regions respond differently. So, you can see the US there, under the new administration beginning to push that regulatory environment that somewhat behind us, but they’re heading in that direction. There are other regions that are less exposed to that regulatory environment, think of, the Global South, for example. But slowly, slowly, the direction of travel means that regulatory environment will begin to pervade all these different countries. And they will all be forced to decarbonize more and more quickly, but it’s going to be up to a few of the bigger regions to lead the way in that direction.

Rachael Kinsella: Mm-hmm. And how do you think that’s going to work into changing business strategies to obviously account for more stringent regulation, to account for costs and different ways of doing business? We’ve talked about the consumer role. And we’ve talked about cost being flagged as a barrier by consumers and businesses alike. So how are you seeing business strategies evolving to shape a cleaner business?

Adrian Del Maestro: So fundamental question Rachael. I think, business strategies are having to become much more dynamic. Again, cast your minds back kind of 20 years ago, a company would set a strategy maybe for 5-10 years, and then review it in 5-10 years’ time. Now they need to be much more dynamic and adapt their strategy on a more regular basis. And because of this environment, where there is a big push for decarbonization, that having to look, on the one hand, if you’re an energy company, you’re seeing clearly lots of examples of companies shifting their portfolio that may have once been focused on oil and gas production, where they are now looking to build a much bigger low carbon business. So, if you think of the European supermajors, the oil and gas supermajors are very much a good example of that, where they’re basically using their legacy, oil and gas business to generate cash flow, that they’re investing in low carbon. So, in offshore wind, and solar PV and electric vehicles, hydrogen, etc. And they’re shifting that portfolio over time to grow that low carbon business. And that requires a company to be very agile, use a lot of technology to be much more efficient. And also have a compelling narrative for their shareholders and stakeholders that they are on this journey. And they will get there. Then you’re seeing broader corporates, announcing Net Zero, pledging Net Zero commitments. And then looking at their organization and trying to figure out what can I do to decarbonize. And one of the early areas that they’re looking at are the fleets. So, they’re their stock of vehicles, cars, vans, trucks, and they’re looking to decarbonize those. And for the easier part of that challenge. They’re electrifying the lighter vehicles; they’re looking at other alternative technologies for the heavier vehicles. But in all these examples, companies are having to have a dynamic strategy. So, they’re seeing what’s happening now. What’s likely to come up on the horizon in terms of the regulatory environment. What do we need to do with our strategy? How do we manage our portfolio? What can we do to decarbonize our operations? And I think the interesting thing that I certainly see with many of our clients is, it’s changing the way they think. So greening, decarbonizing your organization isn’t just simply right – I’m going to switch my 100 diesel trucks into 100 electric cars. It’s that but it’s also the way I run my business is going to change. I’m not going to be able to do certain things that I used to do. And even a really silly example you’ve got, those famous office parties that you would have organized off the cuff and you say, well, we’re going to take everybody to an island somewhere and have a great time. You’re now thinking, what’s my carbon footprint if I do that? Better if I do something locally. It’s literally changing the way you think and the operations you undertake. So, I think that’s the biggest change that companies are dealing with.

Rachael Kinsella: That’s really encouraging, actually, I think, getting people to think differently and approach business in a different way, rather than just making the odd change here and there looking at it as a whole, looking at the overall strategy and looking at that stakeholder dialogue as well, making sure that you say, and as you say that this meaningful change happening, and that’s being communicated. Why we’re doing it this way? What we’re hoping to achieve, with an eye on those future goals. And I am wondering how this affects job roles? And within organizations, obviously, there’s a need for new technologies, there’s changing almost into different sectors, there’s, new ways of the supply chain, and at each level of the business that’s changing, so how are you seeing that change the roles within the organization’s as they’re evolving these strategies?

Adrian Del Maestro: So, I think, well, clearly one of the top-of-mind changes is the whole shift to remote working, so, clearly, that had a positive impact in terms of, the ways in changing the way we operate and lowering our carbon footprints, you’re not jumping on planes all the time to go and have a meeting, you’re doing video conference calls. So, I think you know that that’s been a positive trend that has its own challenges as we move to more permanent models of maybe hybrid models where you have a large chunk of the workforce working remotely, how do you make sure that they still have the same opportunities for career progression, for training, for learning that they used to have when they were physically in an office? I mean, there’s a lot of businesses I can think of that have big field service operations, where you earn your credits by going out in the field and doing certain things. But if you’re working remotely, you’re not going to get that exposure. So how can you do that? So, I think there’s a big theme around human resources, making sure that they can retain their talent and grow their talent, particularly in a remote working environment. You talked about the supply chain. I mean, the supply chain in its broadest sense will need to decarbonize. Because if I think of the energy sector, just to bring it to life, you’ve got energy companies, oil and gas companies that have a strategic focus on decarbonization. And they will be looking to their supply chains, I think of oilfield service companies, for example. You will also have to decarbonize, they will have to diversify. And not only to provide the skills and services to support the low carbon agenda, building offshore wind farms, for example, but also in the way that they operate, that they have credentials, and having decarbonize the way they operate, because the end client is decarbonizing and has that narrative about what they’re doing to change society. Therefore, the supply chain has to follow suit as well. So, there are very long-term, very pervasive impacts and implications of this whole decarbonisation agenda.

Rachael Kinsella: Absolutely. Honestly, that key point being decarbonisation, but also, what about the social aspects of ESG? How is that affecting overall strategies, particularly within the energy sector?

Adrian Del Maestro: Yeah, again, So, clearly another big theme, and ESG is really driving the way companies react, the way they behave, the way they respond to market trends. ESG is driving, impacting, influencing how capital is deployed in the market. There is lots of capital in the market that can be invested in a lot of is going into green low carbon technology. So, the ESG is driving that agenda. And I think what’s interesting is, clearly, there’s a lot of focus in the energy sector on the environmental aspects of ESG. But equally, the social side I think, is really interesting because if you look historically, and just pick a simple example of how oil and gas companies in the past when they would extract resources from a country, they would go to make sure that there was an exchange of skills with the host government. Develop local content, build academies for technical education, etc. So, there was an exchange of capabilities. I think there’s still that opportunity now, but it’s much more now there’s that whole energy transition wrapper around it. So, I think there’s a big role on the social side, for the sector, the energy sector to play in enabling that transition. If you think about how much, how these companies, how these energy companies have a global footprint, they have significant capital to deploy. They’ve got very strong project management, technical, engineering skills. These are all elements that you need to enable the transition. And a good example, again, is with those industrial clusters that I alluded to earlier in the UK, production of hydrogen using carbon capture technology, there’s a big opportunity for the sector to help accelerate those industrial clusters, which will generate local employment, and also build a new economy around some of these new technologies that will have a big impact on the rest of the country. So, a big role to play there, particularly on the social side.

Rachael Kinsella: Absolutely. Yeah, it’s fascinating, seeing that it’s very circular. There’s a lot of talk about the circular economy, but it really is a circular process. It’s interesting to see it from that perspective. What do you think is the key takeaway? We’ve talked about education? We’ve talked about communication and different areas of industry working together? What are the key takeaways that you would like to get across?

Adrian Del Maestro: I think, if we take a step back, because we’ve covered a lot, Rachael. If I take a step back, certainly what I’d like our listeners to think about is,1- The urgency to decarbonize. We need to really pull out all the stops. I think the importance of collaboration across industry and government to facilitate those solutions that can allow us to decarbonize. And probably the last thing is, which you heard today is the importance of the individual consumer. We all can shape our destiny, and we should all be encouraging colleagues, stakeholders, governments, to do everything possible to decarbonize.

Rachael Kinsella: Brilliant! Very well put and a lot of food for thought for our listeners today. Thank you, Adrian. Is there anything else that you wanted to mention while we have you here with us?

Adrian Del Maestro: No. Great speaking to you Rachael. Really enjoyed the conversation and I hope our listeners get some pleasure out of this. Thanks a lot.

Rachael Kinsella: Ah, I’m sure they will. Thank you so much. It’s been great.